Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets, who were on the verge of elimination, extended the Western Conference playoffs on Thursday by winning at home and forcing a return Game 7 at Paycom Center.

On Sunday afternoon, the immensely entertaining slugfest that has been the first-round series between these Northwest Division rivals will come to a conclusion.

With a trip to the Western Conference Finals on the line, my Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions center on superstars Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic as they square off in what should be a low-scoring game in Oklahoma City.

During the regular season, Nikola Jokic averaged precisely 52.5 PRA. Against Denver in the Western Conference semifinals, he averaged 50.5 PRA. In 41 of 83 games, including two of six in this series and four of ten against the Thunder overall, he has hit the Over on this line.

In the semifinals, Jokic averaged 45.3 points per game at home and 55 points per game on the road. I anticipate that he will continue to be dominant on the road in Game 7. It's all or nothing for Denver in this one, and if Aaron Gordon is eventually ruled out, Jokic will receive an increase in production to make this prop sweeter.

This series has been neck and neck from the start, so it’s no surprise that Game 7 feels like a true coin flip. Given how evenly matched both teams have been, the current spread arguably undervalues the visiting Thunder—especially considering the uncertainty surrounding Aaron Gordon’s availability, with the latest from Shams Charania casting doubt on his status.

It’s always tough to go against experience and championship DNA in the postseason, but youth, depth, and fresh legs can be just as crucial in a do-or-die clash. Oklahoma City has all of that in spades. They were the class of the NBA during the regular season, coasted through a first-round sweep of Memphis, and come into Game 7 with fresher legs than a Denver team that has already logged 13 grueling playoff games.

This game could mark the long-awaited postseason breakout for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the NBA’s leading scorer in the regular season. He hasn’t topped 35 points in this series so far, but Game 7 is the perfect stage to change that narrative.

The numbers back it up:

• In 10 games against the Nuggets this season, SGA has averaged 26.2 points on the road but 32.6 at home, including one 40-point explosion.

• In this playoff run, he’s averaging 28.4 points per game, down from 32.7 in the regular season.

• Shot volume has dipped too—just 19.8 attempts per game this series, and 18.6 over the last five, compared to 21.8 in the regular season.

But when the stakes are highest, stars rise. SGA led the league with 26 games of 35+ points, seven more than the next closest player… none other than Nikola Jokic, who did it 19 times.

With everything on the line in this win-or-go-home finale, look for SGA to assert himself early and often. His points line sits at 31.5 (-120), but you can grab 35+ at juicy plus-money odds—a worthwhile gamble on a superstar ready to seize his moment.