Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets, following a strong showing in Game 1, experienced a stunning collapse in Game 2, leaving the Western Conference semifinal series tied at 1-1. The Colorado squad appeared out of sorts in the second game, ultimately falling 149-106. They now face the challenge of recovering from a demoralizing defeat that has undoubtedly rattled them. To be fair, some regression was anticipated after the emotionally taxing first game and their grueling series against the Los Angeles Clippers.

In contrast to their Game 1 performance, the Nuggets struggled on both offense and defense. Their defense was virtually absent, allowing the Oklahoma City Thunder to score 87 points in the first half, matching an NBA playoff record for points in a half. This starkly highlights their failure to control the game. The team looked unrecognizable, with Michael Porter Jr. drawing particular criticism—so much so that Nikola Jokic publicly addressed his struggles. Far from his championship-season form, Porter’s contribution is sorely needed. Even Jokic, a three-time MVP, underperformed, posting a team-worst -36 plus-minus during his time on the court.

The Oklahoma City Thunder, stinging from a heartbreaking Game 1 loss after leading until Aaron Gordon’s buzzer-beating three-pointer off Chet Holmgren’s missed free throws, roared back with a vengeance. With the series now even, they’re well-positioned, especially after avoiding a second home loss that would have complicated the series.

Beyond their record-breaking first half, the Thunder delivered a stellar defensive effort, with Jaylin Williams emerging as a surprising key in containing Nikola Jokic, who struggled noticeably. Offensively, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was exceptional, shooting 11-of-13 from the field and a perfect 11-of-11 from the free-throw line, while dishing out eight assists. Most remarkably, the Thunder posted a +51 with him on the court—an extraordinary figure. This series is beginning to echo the Thunder’s dominant performance against the Memphis Grizzlies in the prior round.

Nikola Jokic has a history of responding to poor rebounding performances with dominance on the glass.

• After grabbing just nine rebounds in Denver’s 45-point loss to Minnesota in Game 6 last year, he pulled down 19 in Game 7.

• Following an 11-rebound letdown in a 20-point loss to Golden State in 2022, he responded with 18 boards the next game.

• And when Phoenix blew out the Nuggets by 25 in 2021 while limiting him to 13 rebounds, he answered with 20 in the following contest.

So despite Jokic’s quiet Game 2 against the Thunder, this is exactly when you should trust him.

During the regular season, he cleared this rebound prop in two of four matchups against Oklahoma City, averaging 15.8 boards in those games. He also dominated with 22 rebounds in Game 1 of this series.

Ignore the Game 2 outlier. The Thunder simply don’t have the size to keep Jokic off the glass long-term. Even his physical fouls in the third quarter might have been a calculated move—setting the tone for a more aggressive Game 3.

And let’s be real: Oklahoma City won’t shoot like a 50-40-90 team again. Their absurd efficiency in Game 2 limited Jokic’s rebounding chances. A few more misses, and those extra opportunities will be his.

The rebound prop is still a strong play. Jokic doesn’t stay down for long.