The Milwaukee Bucks and Detroit Pistons have both secured their playoff berths, with the Bucks’ victory on Friday locking them into the No. 5 seed and the Pistons into the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference. In games like these, where playoff spots are already decided, bettors often lean toward the Under, expecting unmotivated teams to play reserves who struggle offensively.
But Sunday’s matchup doesn’t seem to fit that mold. Let’s start with the Pistons, who’ve earned a playoff spot after finishing with the NBA’s worst record the past two years. Coach J.B. Bickerstaff is focused on keeping his youthful roster ready for the postseason, and his players have noted that facing the Bucks again is a great way to prep for playoff intensity—hardly a signal that Detroit will coast through their final regular-season game.
The Pistons have maintained their scoring pace late in the season, putting up an average of 117 points over their last three games. While Jaden Ivey (17.6 ppg) isn’t expected to return yet and backup Isaiah Stewart is listed on the injury report, Detroit’s core players are set to suit up. That includes Cade Cunningham (26.1 ppg), Malik Beasley (16.2 ppg, a Sixth Man of the Year candidate), Tobias Harris (13.9 ppg), and Jalen Duren (11.9 ppg).
The Bucks, meanwhile, will rest a few key players, with Bobby Portis (13.9 ppg) and Brook Lopez (13.0 ppg) sitting out, and Damian Lillard (24.9 ppg) still sidelined as he recovers from a blood clot. That said, Giannis Antetokounmpo (30.4 ppg) is slated to take the court, and any time he’s playing significant minutes, Milwaukee’s offense remains potent and formidable.
This season, all three games between these teams have gone Over the total, with at least 235 combined points each time. Current NBA odds set the total much lower, perhaps anticipating a lackluster regular-season closer. But with both teams fielding lineups close to their usual rotations, I’m betting on the Over.