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On Monday, Slovenia and Kazakhstan will square off in a pivotal, winner-take-all match during Euro 2024 qualifying.
If the visitors triumph on Friday and Slovenia loses in Denmark, Kazakhstan will advance if they win here; for the hosts, any other outcome would suffice.Whatever the outcome of this match, one of the finalists at Euro 2024 the following summer will be a new face.
Since gaining independence from Yugoslavia, Slovenia has only ever advanced to the European Championships, at Euro 2000. In addition, it has not been eligible for a major tournament for 13 years.
Kazakhstan, however, will be aiming for their first big competition since the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Kazakhstan has never endangered the qualification positions since joining UEFA and has only once failed to advance to the World Cups in 1998 and 2002, as well as the Asian Cups in 1996 and 2000.
After Slovenia was defeated in Denmark on Friday, they enter matchday 10 still in the running and in control of their own destiny.
Slovenia has only lost twice in fifteen competitive games, but even though they have won nine of their nine qualifiers thus far, they still need to improve if they want to advance in this group.
Despite having a one-point lead against Kazakhstan going into the match, Matjaz Kek's team is still the clear favorite to advance.
They are bearing the consequences of expensive losses in Finland and Denmark in a group where near-perfection has been demanded.
The Slovenians may not have realized how important their 2-1 victory over Kazakhstan on the first matchday would prove to be in November, but it might turn out to be the game that counts.
However, Magomed Adiyev's team is determined to exact revenge for that loss and, in the process, write football history in Kazakhstan by qualifying for the major finals for the first time as a sovereign state.
Following a March loss to Slovenia, the easternmost qualifying country has won six of its eight games after defeating San Marino on Friday.
It has been crucial to win both home and away against Northern Ireland and to pull off shocking comeback victories over Denmark and Finland, two Nordic teams.
Kazakhstan's performance in the Nations League previous season, where they won their group that included Belarus, Slovakia, and Azerbaijan, indicates that this is also no accident.
That has secured them a spot in League B of the upcoming Nations League in a year, and even in the event that they lose today, a postseason berth for the Euros.
