Sacramento Kings vs Milwaukee Bucks

Domantas Sabonis has been instrumental in the Sacramento Kings’ recent winning streak, dominating in various ways—from grabbing 28 rebounds against the Boston Celtics to notching a crucial triple-double to take down the Miami Heat. He’s set to play a key role once again tonight as the Kings face off against the Milwaukee Bucks and their imposing frontcourt.

Expect Sabonis to fill up the stat sheet, but his scoring could be the game-changer as Sacramento looks to secure its eighth consecutive win. He has surpassed the 20-point mark in each of his last four games, including a 23-point outing in Boston, and with Malik Monk sidelined, there will be even more scoring opportunities available.

Despite the Kings’ deep offensive rotation, Sabonis’ remarkable efficiency—shooting 62% from the field in January—ensures that he doesn’t need a high volume of attempts to hit this Over.

Milwaukee’s defensive vulnerabilities were exposed in their recent 140-point loss to the New York Knicks, presenting opportunities for the Kings to capitalize. De’Aaron Fox and DeMar DeRozan are poised to put pressure on the Bucks’ perimeter defense, especially with Khris Middleton unavailable, which could create more openings for Sabonis to score inside.

With Giannis Antetokounmpo unable to cover every threat on the floor, Sabonis should have plenty of chances to collect second-chance points. He surpassed this 18.5-point Over/Under line in both meetings with Milwaukee last season and enters tonight’s contest in peak form.

The Bucks have split their last 10 games at 5-5 and hold a 16-21-1 record against the spread this season. Additionally, Giannis Antetokounmpo (listed as probable) has been dealing with a knee issue. If the game turns into a high-scoring affair, it would likely favor Sacramento, which ranks in the Top 10 for both points per game and field-goal attempts.

Without Khris Middleton providing a spark off the bench and with a couple of non-shooters in the starting lineup, Milwaukee will rely heavily on Damian Lillard’s perimeter shooting. As a result, expect him to take a high volume of three-point attempts.

Lillard has been efficient from beyond the arc, shooting 41% this month. I'm backing him to surpass 2.5 made three-pointers, as he has hit at least three in eight of his last 10 games.