The Memphis Grizzlies (48-34) and Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) are scheduled to play each other at FedExForum in Memphis on Thursday, April 24.
The first two games of the series were easily won by the Thunder. In both, they dominated. A strong Memphis comeback was set in motion by those victories.
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The Oklahoma City Thunder have every reason to celebrate Chet Holmgren’s three-point shooting in Games 1 and 2 against the Memphis Grizzlies—and not just because it’s cashing betting slips. His ability to stretch the floor as a 7-foot-1 forward-wing hybrid is completely dismantling Memphis’ defensive scheme. By pulling Zach Edey and Jaren Jackson Jr. away from the rim, he’s creating wide-open driving lanes for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, turning the Thunder’s offense into a well-oiled machine.
Holmgren attempted eight threes in Game 2, hitting three—enough to clear his betting prop, which remains unchanged this series. But the real value isn’t just in the makes; it’s in the gravity he creates.
Memphis has no answer for his perimeter game, especially against Edey, who struggles to defend in space. Holmgren’s outside shooting is a strategic nightmare for the Grizzlies, and there’s no adjustment they can make to take it away.
Even if the series tightens and Holmgren plays 35+ minutes, expect him to keep firing. The only concern might be a potential road shooting slump—role players often struggle away from home. But Holmgren is no ordinary role player. His late-season surge saw him shoot 44.4% from deep in the final month, including 54.5% in five road games. He’s hit multiple threes in eight of his last 14 games, proving his consistency isn’t tied to home-court advantage.
Lowering this spread to -8.5 when this series moves to Memphis seems like a dumb move, even if Oklahoma City will win. The Thunder easily covered the 14-point spread, winning Game 2 by 19 points.
Bottom line: Bet on Holmgren to keep shooting, and bet on the Thunder to keep exploiting Memphis’ defensive flaws. This chess match is firmly in Oklahoma City’s control.
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