Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder

We have everything covered with our Grizzlies vs. Thunder prediction for Thursday night's matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Oklahoma City Thunder, a Western Conference matchup with teams on the correct side of the postseason cut line. In their last game, Memphis defeated Utah 140-103 on the road Tuesday night, covering the line as an 11.5-point favorite.

Before crushing Utah on the road Tuesday night in their last game, Memphis had lost three straight and four of their last five games. With a 44-28 record going into Wednesday, the Grizzlies were 2.5 games behind the Rockets for the top slot in the Southwest Division. They were 3.5 games ahead of the Clippers to secure a postseason berth, 16 games behind the Thunder for the top slot, and fourth in the Western Conference. Memphis fell behind Utah by as much as 12 points in the first quarter and as much as 14 points in the first half before closing the gap to one point at the half.

Oklahoma City defeated Sacramento on the road Tuesday night, winning their seventh consecutive game and their 14th in the previous 15 games. The Thunder finished the season with a 60-12 record and won both the Western Conference and Northwest Division titles. Oklahoma City had a 10-point lead after the first quarter and a 22-point lead at the half against Sacramento. The Thunder won the game by preventing the Kings from getting any closer than eight points after three quarters. Oklahoma City had a 52-36 lead on the boards during the game and shot 52.4% from the field, including 19 of 32 from beyond the arc.

Jaren Jackson Jr. can't wait to turn the calendar to April after a brutal March. The Grizzlies' star big man has struggled through injuries, inconsistent performances, and foul trouble all month—and it’s taken a toll on his production.

Most notably, his rebounding numbers have plummeted. After averaging over six boards per game for most of the season, Jackson has managed just over three rebounds in his last eight appearances. A sprained ankle sidelined him for five games earlier this month, and he exited Tuesday’s loss to the Jazz early after taking an elbow to the face, finishing with just three rebounds in 23 minutes.

Despite his recent slump, projections favor Jackson grabbing at least six rebounds, with some models predicting seven. My projection sits at 6.3, making the Over 5.5 rebounds (currently at plus-money odds) an appealing bet.

Given that injuries have been the primary culprit behind his rebounding dip, I like the value on Jackson clearing this number in what should be a fast-paced, high-volume shooting affair.