Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets

In only their second playoff appearance this decade, the Houston Rockets welcome the Golden State Warriors to Toyota Center for the opening game of their first-round series on Sunday evening.

The Warriors secured their postseason spot with a 121-116 win against the Memphis Grizzlies in the play-in tournament, while the Rockets, despite a 126-111 loss to the Denver Nuggets in their final regular-season game, clinched the second seed in the highly competitive Western Conference.

Under second-year head coach Ime Udoka, the Rockets made significant strides, improving their win total by 11 games to finish with 52 victories. This marked their best season since capturing the Southwest Division in 2019-20 and achieving a winning percentage of .634, the highest since their .646 in 2018-19.

The Rockets excelled on both offense and defense, ranking among the NBA’s top four teams in both categories. They also led the league with a +5.5 differential in shot attempts compared to their opponents, the largest margin in the NBA and the fifth-largest over the past 25 seasons. This edge in second-chance opportunities offset their 23rd-ranked effective field goal percentage of 52.3.

Houston has had the upper hand in recent matchups against Golden State, winning two of their last three encounters, including a 106-96 victory earlier this month where they dominated the boards with 49 rebounds and recorded seven blocks.

The Warriors, meanwhile, appeared poised to miss the playoffs for the second straight year as they struggled with inconsistency through early February. However, a blockbuster trade that brought Jimmy Butler from the Miami Heat in exchange for former top pick Andrew Wiggins turned their season around, revitalizing Steve Kerr’s squad.

Since the February 6 trade, the Golden State Warriors have been in dominant form, losing only eight games—including the play-in round—while riding a six-game road winning streak. Their performance has been nothing short of impressive, showcasing resilience and adaptability as they push toward postseason success.

The addition of Butler has been a game-changer for the Warriors, particularly in their offensive execution. Since his arrival, Golden State has averaged 5.5 more shot attempts per game than their opponents, a significant boost that mirrors the Houston Rockets’ season-long average in this category. This improvement in possession efficiency has given them an extra edge in controlling the tempo and creating scoring opportunities.

Another key factor in the Warriors' success has been their commitment to ball movement. Throughout the 2024-25 season, they averaged 390 passes per 24 minutes of possession, the second-highest rate in the NBA. This unselfish, fast-paced style of play has kept defenses scrambling and allowed Golden State to generate high-quality looks.

Despite leading the league in assist rate—recording assists on 71.4% of their made field goals—the Warriors have struggled with shooting efficiency, ranking sixth-worst in field goal percentage at just 45.1%. This paradox highlights their reliance on ball distribution to compensate for inconsistent shooting. Moving forward, improving shot selection and finishing could elevate them from a playoff contender to a true championship threat.