England vs Fiji

Click on any stream link below to watch the game

 Click on any link in the table above to watch the game.

-------------------------------------------------

England may have had a positive outlook about securing a Rugby World Cup quarter-final against a lower-ranked team, but the memory of their 30-22 loss to Fiji at Twickenham just two months ago tarnished their enthusiasm. This defeat marked a low point in what had been a disappointing year for the England rugby team. While they've managed to bounce back with four consecutive wins in their pool, they faced a tough challenge against Samoa in their last match, causing concerns to resurface.

Both losses can be explained by certain circumstances. The absence of Owen Farrell during the Twickenham defeat was a significant factor, but he's now back at fly-half for this upcoming match. Additionally, England's drop in performance in their final pool match could be attributed to having already secured the top spot.

Moreover, Fiji is dealing with their own setbacks, with injuries to key players, including fly-half Caleb Muntz and backup Teti Tela. This forces Vilimoni Botitu into the unfamiliar role of number ten.

Fiji's strengths lie in their prowess at the breakdown, with Levani Botia excelling in turning over opposition possession, and their backline, which boasts dangerous runners capable of breaking defenses with offloads and clean breaks. This creates a tactical dilemma for England, as they must balance kicking the ball while being cautious not to give up possession to Fiji's back three. They'll also need to manage the game's tempo, considering the potential vulnerability at the breakdown.

Establishing a strong set-piece platform is essential, and in the early stages, England's focus will be on executing the basics, ensuring precision, and controlling the match. In their previous defeat at Twickenham, they managed this to some extent, despite an early lead with Jonny May's ninth-minute try. The game may similarly start slowly.

Notably, England has conceded only three tries in the tournament, fewer than any other team, and they maintained their defensive integrity until the 79th minute against Argentina, even when down to 14 men for most of the match.

Fiji's confidence might have taken a hit after having to come from behind to beat Georgia and losing their final pool match to Portugal, a team that had never previously won a World Cup match.

With the stakes high and tension in the air, a prudent betting approach would be to anticipate a low-scoring first half and a narrow victory for England. Except for a dominant performance against Chile, England's attack hasn't been firing on all cylinders during this tournament. Nevertheless, with the inclusion of a second playmaker in Marcus Smith at full-back, they should have the edge in creating scoring opportunities.

Many anticipated that Fiji would be a potential surprise in Pool C, and they certainly lived up to that by giving Wales a tough challenge in their first match and defeating Eddie Jones' Australia team in their second match.

However, not many expected Fiji to lose to a Portugal team that was seeking their first-ever win at the Rugby World Cup. This goes to show that you should always be prepared for unexpected outcomes when Fiji is on the field. This was evident when they played their final World Cup warm-up match in Twickenham and secured their first-ever Test win against their quarter-final opponents.

Steve Borthwick's team followed a similar trajectory in the pool stage, comfortably beating Argentina, Japan, and Chile, though they struggled in their last game against an underrated Samoa team. Despite the unimpressive win over Samoa, England's flawless record in the pool stage might make them believe they are a stronger team now compared to when they lost to Fiji in August.

England's experience at this stage of the tournament could be a game-changer, with many of Borthwick's squad members playing crucial roles in their victory over Australia in the 2019 quarter-finals and their subsequent semi-final win against New Zealand. In contrast, Fiji has never reached the semi-finals, facing defeat in their two previous quarter-final appearances against France in 1987 (16-31) and South Africa in 2007 (20-37).

Both England and Fiji have excelled in ball retention in this year's Rugby World Cup, ranking second and fourth in that aspect. Fiji has also dominated in terms of territory, with a share of 56.4%. However, the two teams have different approaches when it comes to using their possession. Fiji has made more carries than any other team in the quarter-finals, with 557, while England has attempted the most kicks in play at 135.

Fiji's relentless carrying has put immense pressure on opposing defenses, as evidenced by their forcing Wales to make 253 tackles in their opening match, the most in a single Rugby World Cup game. The physical toll Fiji's intensity imposes on their opponents has allowed them to score 43% of their points in the final quarter of games, the highest rate among all teams. In contrast, England has also scored the highest proportion of their points in the final 20 minutes of matches at 32% and has conceded only 18% of their total points during the final quarter, the lowest among all teams. Therefore, this match is likely to remain undecided until the final whistle in Marseille.