The final two matchups between Boston and Charlotte this season carry little weight. The Celtics have secured the No. 2 spot in the Eastern Conference, and the Hornets have no chance to boost their draft lottery odds. Boston’s focus is on staying injury-free, while Charlotte aims to give its younger players some experience against a strong opponent.
This kind of game can be tough for bettors to gauge, but I see a solid opportunity tonight. Boston’s last game was a low-scoring 76-point effort in a 20-point defeat to Orlando, with a combined total of just 172 points. While we’re unlikely to see a repeat of that performance—especially with most Celtics starters returning for at least some minutes—it shows how little Boston is prioritizing these final games.
Charlotte’s offense isn’t likely to light up the scoreboard either. The Hornets average only 105.5 points per game, the second-lowest in the league, and they’ve been even less potent recently, scoring 100 points or fewer in four of their last eight games.
Boston’s defense should keep that trend going. The Celtics allow the fewest points in the NBA at 107.6 per game and rank fifth in defensive efficiency with a 110.4 rating. They’re well-equipped to handle a Charlotte team that struggles with shooting, posting the league’s worst effective field goal percentage (50.4%) and true shooting percentage (53.9%). The Hornets also aren’t likely to grab many offensive rebounds against a Boston team that dominates the glass.
On top of that, both teams play at a slow pace, with Boston being the second-slowest in the league and Charlotte not far behind. Fewer possessions mean fewer chances to score, especially for the Hornets, and with starters on both sides likely seeing limited minutes, the game should stay low-scoring. Even with a modest total set for this matchup, I’m confident in betting the Under.
The reigning champions are preparing for the playoffs, which may explain their recent struggles—two losses in their last five games, including defeats to Miami (103-124) and Orlando (76-96). Even with their best lineup on the floor, it’s evident they’re pacing themselves.
In their next game, Brown and Porziņģis are questionable, potentially weakening their defense—already allowing an average of 107.6 points per game this season. Their previous matchup against New York saw even more defensive lapses (119-117).
With their opponent having little to play for at this stage of the season, the Celtics are well-positioned for a strong offensive showing. Averaging 116.4 points per game, they rank among the league’s best. Boston’s superior skill, chemistry, and experience give them a clear advantage.
The bench will be key. Their absence in the loss to Orlando proved costly, but Pritchard, Hauser, Kornet, and Queta are now back in rotation. Additionally, the Celtics won’t want to drop two straight games, so expect a motivated performance.
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