Boston Celtics vs New York Knicks

With 28 points by Payton Pritchard, the Boston Celtics defeated the Philadelphia 76ers 124-104 going into this game. The reigning champions have won eight of their previous nine games, and the 20-point victory was their fourth in a row. They have made an amazing 18.4 triples per game (first) on a fantastic 39.5% clip (second) over that time. In the meantime, they scored 118.2 points per game (10th) and gave up just 106 points per game (2nd) over the 9-game timeframe.

Despite a 26-point effort by Jalen Brunson, the New York Knicks lost to the Cleveland Cavaliers 105-142 going into the game. The Celtics are 10-3 in their previous 13 games overall, but the setback ended a three-game winning run.

They have scored an outstanding 121.7 points per game on a remarkable 49.4% shooting percentage throughout that time. They have let up 119.3 points per game (the sixth-worst) in the winning window, though, as their defense has collapsed.

Jayson Tatum delivered an impressive 15/11/10 triple-double in his first game after the All-Star break, continuing his strong form from the three games prior to the break. During those three games, he averaged 48.6 PRAs (Points + Rebounds + Assists) and hit the Over in all of them. This season, Tatum has recorded at least 41 PRAs in 25 out of 53 games, showcasing his consistent production.

Tatum has particularly excelled against the New York Knicks this season, and I anticipate another standout performance from him at TD Garden today. While he is averaging a solid 41.2 PRAs this season, that number jumps to 50.5 in his two matchups against the Knicks, with him hitting the Over on this line in both games. His success against New York is not a recent development; last season, he averaged 38.6 PRAs across five games against the Knicks. Additionally, dating back to the 2022-23 campaign, Tatum has hit the Over on this line in four of his last six home games against New York.

The Boston Celtics superstar has also been dominant against Atlantic Division opponents this season, averaging 45.5 PRAs and hitting the Over in seven of 10 games. Tonight’s matchup might have seemed challenging earlier in the season, but the Knicks’ defense has been struggling recently. Over their last 10 games, the Knicks have allowed the fourth-most points, the 13th-most rebounds, and the 13th-most assists, a significant drop from their Top 15 defensive rankings in these categories earlier in the season.

While New York’s defense has allowed just 33.2 PRAs to opposing power forwards this season, that number has risen to 36.9 PRAs over the last seven games. The Knicks are clearly trending in the wrong direction defensively, and Tatum has already proven to be a tough matchup for them. Given his history of success against New York and their recent defensive struggles, I expect Tatum to capitalize on this favorable situation and deliver another strong performance at home.