Sean Brady vs Leon Edwards

Before his defeat to Belal Muhammad at UFC 309, Leon Edwards was riding an impressive 12-fight win streak, having defeated some of the division's top contenders to claim and defend his title. However, after being taken down nine times in their recent bout, Edwards' dominance has been called into question. Oddsmakers now suggest he’s the underdog against Sean Brady, with some predicting a swift fall from champion to challenger.

The primary reason Brady is favored lies in Edwards' perceived struggles against grapplers—a area where Brady thrives. A skilled wrestler and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, Brady averages 3.49 takedowns per fight and maintains a positive strike differential, despite his striking being considered average. While Brady suffered a tough knockout loss to Muhammad in 2022, he has since rebounded with wins over past-their-prime fighters Kelvin Gastelum and Gilbert Burns, building a two-fight win streak.

That said, Edwards has proven his mettle against elite grapplers like Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington, and he showed resilience in the later rounds against Muhammad. His main issue tends to be a slow start, as he often prioritizes precision over volume in his striking, landing fewer but more impactful shots.

While Brady may have an early advantage, this is a five-round fight, and Edwards won’t face the same relentless pressure he did against Muhammad. Additionally, this marks only Brady’s second five-round bout and his first true test since his knockout loss to Muhammad—a fight where his wrestling failed to make an impact.

Edwards’ efficiency in striking could prove pivotal. If Brady becomes overly aggressive with takedown attempts, he risks walking into significant counter shots. Though the fight is likely to be close, Edwards’ ability to stay off the mat and outwork Brady in the stand-up exchanges should give him the edge to secure a narrow victory.

Leon Edwards returns to his home turf, determined to set things right. The former UFC welterweight champion will compete in England, the same place where he lost his title to Belal Muhammad, as he faces rising contender Sean Brady. With a potential title shot on the line, Saturday’s main event in London carries high stakes.

Edwards (22-4, 1 NC) steps into the octagon for the first time since his title loss at UFC 304 in July. Despite being favored against Muhammad—having previously defended his belt against top wrestlers like Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington—Edwards struggled as Muhammad dominated with nine takedowns, securing a unanimous decision victory. The defeat marked Edwards' first loss since December 2015, when Usman bested him in a fight that would later become the first chapter of a trilogy that Edwards eventually won.