Seahawks vs 49ers

The 49ers are back on track, but the Seahawks are struggling ahead of their Thanksgiving primetime NFC West matchup.

After going on bye, San Francisco (7-3) defeated the Buccaneers last Sunday to move to 2-0 since then. Conversely, Seattle (6-4) has lost its last three games against the 49ers and recently suffered its second defeat on the road against the Rams in three weeks.

The Seahawks return to Lumen Field, where they are 4-1 on the season, but with Geno Smith (elbow) out for the duration, San Francisco is a 6.5-point favorite in Seattle.

On Thanksgiving, the 49ers are 3-2-1 all-time, while the Seahawks are 2-2.
With 825 rushing yards, Christian McCaffrey leads the NFL by a significant margin. The season before, he played in Seattle twice and broke 100.
The league-high 14 interceptions made by San Francisco are a major factor in their +10 turnover differential.

Regaining control of the NFC West, San Francisco is beginning to resemble the squad that began the season 5–0 rather than the one that ended October with three straight losses. In Sunday's 27–14 victory over Tampa Bay, Brock Purdy completed a perfect passer rating while tossing touchdown passes to Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle.

The renowned 49ers defense also stifled the Bucs' running attack and caused two turnovers. After allowing 24 points per game during its three-game losing streak, San Francisco has only given up 17 points, and the defense led by defensive coordinator Steve Wilks is limiting opponents to 15.7 points per game on average, which leads the NFL.

During the previous season, Smith had some of his worst performances against the 49ers, who defeated Seattle 27–7, 21–13, and 41–23 in the postseason. It also doesn't help that he has to recover quickly before taking on one of the top defenses in the league due to an injury.

Smith was struck by Aaron Donald and had to leave the 17–16 loss to the Rams early. In the closing seconds of the game, Jason Meyers missed a 55-yard field goal, which was devastating given the tough schedule the Seahawks have ahead of them—49ers, at Cowboys, 49ers, Eagles. He came back to lead the drive that would have won the game.

When playing against one of the best run defenses in the league, Seattle is also anticipated to be without its top rusher, Kenneth Walker III (oblique). Zach Charbonnet was more active when Walker went down, but even though he had a season-high 21 touches, the rookie was ineffective.

It will be necessary for Smith to rekindle his career-high 369 passing yards against the Commanders on Thanksgiving in order to stay up with San Francisco, who recently lost All-Pro safety Talanoa Hufanga for the season.

As the most productive offensive unit in the NFL, the 49ers should have no trouble moving the ball against the Seahawks defense, which only a few weeks ago allowed the Ravens to score 37 points and over 300 running yards. Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel are back in the starting lineup, and Kyle Shanahan's offense is more effective than ever.

Given that San Francisco is just 2–3 against the spread on the road this year and has suffered two straight defeats, the under is the better option here because 6.5 points is a lot to cover in a venue like Lumen Field. It has struck in these two teams' past five games together, going 6-3-1 in their regular-season matchups from the previous season. In addition, the Seahawks will find it difficult to score points against the league's most formidable defense with Smith and Walker down.