San Antonio Spurs vs Cleveland Cavaliers

The Spurs have struggled defensively in the paint this season, allowing the eighth-most points, which puts Allen in a favorable position. With Evan Mobley sidelined, Allen is expected to see increased opportunities. In the eight games without Mobley, he has posted averages of 17.6 points and 11 rebounds, surpassing this line five times. Like Garland, Allen has seen a statistical boost in Mobley’s absence.

Meanwhile, Castle has started seven consecutive games, averaging 19.9 points during that stretch. He has scored at least 15 points in each of those contests. With Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox unavailable, Castle has been given the green light offensively and has capitalized on his expanded role.

Darius Garland has been delivering solid numbers this season, averaging 20.8 points and 6.7 assists per game, combining for 27.5 points and assists (PA). A typical performance from him should be enough to surpass this mark tonight, and the circumstances are in his favor.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are back on their home court after a five-game road trip, which bodes well for Garland. He has been more effective both as a scorer and playmaker at home, averaging 28.5 PA compared to 26.5 PA on the road.

Garland has exceeded this line in 38 of 67 games overall and 19 of 33 at home. His recent home performances have been strong, with an average of 28 PA over his last three appearances.

With Evan Mobley sidelined, Garland is expected to take on a larger offensive role. In eight games without Mobley this season, he has averaged 30.1 PA, hitting the Over five times while finishing with exactly 26 PA in another contest.

Defensively, the San Antonio Spurs have struggled against opposing point guards, allowing them to average 24.2 points and 9.1 assists per game this season. Their recent form has been even weaker, surrendering 26.9 points and 11.2 assists to the position over the last seven games. Given these favorable conditions, expect Garland to step up and deliver a strong performance at home.