Nigeria vs Côte d'Ivoire

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After securing a 1-0 victory against Ivory Coast in the group stage, Nigeria aims to achieve a rare feat by defeating the same opponent twice in a single CAF Africa Cup of Nations tournament, a feat last accomplished in 2006 when they bested Senegal in both the group stage and third-place play-off matches.

Ivory Coast stands as the first host nation to reach the Africa Cup of Nations final since Egypt in 2006, a tournament where Egypt clinched victory over Ivory Coast via penalties following a goalless draw. Notably, in the past six instances where the host nation reached the final, five emerged as champions, with Nigeria in 2000 being the exception, losing in penalties to Cameroon.

Nigeria enters their eighth AFCON final, trailing only Egypt and Ghana in the number of final appearances. Their recent track record includes victories in two out of their last three finals, with defeats in the three preceding ones.

Ivory Coast's history in AFCON finals has seen all four previous appearances culminate in goalless draws leading to penalty shootouts, with two victories (1992 and 2015) and two losses (2006 and 2012) in such scenarios.

The statistics showcase Ivory Coast's dominance when scoring the first goal, winning 17 out of their last 18 matches, while Nigeria remains unbeaten in 22 AFCON games when taking the lead.

Common scorelines in AFCON finals include 1-0 and 0-0, with nine out of the last 11 finals ending in either of these results.

Since conceding three goals to Egypt in 2010, Nigeria has maintained a solid defensive record, conceding only 16 goals in 28 AFCON games, with just eight coming from open play.

William Troost-Ekong has been lethal for Nigeria, converting four out of five shots on target, including two penalties. He joins a select group of Nigerians to score two penalties in a single AFCON tournament.

Ivory Coast's goals at AFCON 2023 have been distributed among six different players, a balanced attacking performance not seen since 2008.

Victor Osimhen of Nigeria has been prolific in shooting but with a low conversion rate, while Ivory Coast's Evan Ndicka has set a record for completed passes in a single tournament since 2010.

Ola Aina's role in creating chances for Victor Osimhen stands out, reminiscent of Burkina Faso's Charles Kaboré's contributions to Aristide Bancé in 2013.

Ivory Coast narrowly avoided elimination during the group stage of the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations just over two weeks ago. Now, as the host nation, they are gearing up to face Nigeria once again in Sunday's final at the Olympic Stadium of Ebimpé, marking a remarkable turnaround in their fortunes.

The Elephants' poor performance in Group A nearly led to complete humiliation. Head coach Jean-Louis Gasset was surprisingly dismissed mid-tournament, leaving the team uncertain about their fate in the knockout stages.

Their 2-0 victory over Guinea-Bissau in the opening match turned out to be crucial, as those three points were just enough to secure their spot as one of the four best third-place finishers. Despite losses to Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea, they managed to advance. The devastating 4-0 defeat to Equatorial Guinea marked Ivory Coast's worst-ever AFCON loss and sealed Gasset's departure.

Their fate hung by a thread, as Ivory Coast would have been eliminated if Ghana had maintained their lead to beat Mozambique later that day. However, Ghana squandered a 2-0 advantage in stoppage time, narrowly saving Ivory Coast from elimination.

Even in the knockout stages, Ivory Coast's victories haven't been straightforward. They needed extra time twice and went to penalties against Senegal before edging past DR Congo 1-0 in the semi-finals. Despite the challenges, their journey has brought them remarkably close to glory under interim coach Emerse Faé.

Nigeria has demonstrated consistent strength throughout the tournament, displaying solid defensive capabilities by conceding only two goals in six matches, excluding penalty shootouts. Their journey began with a strong performance in Group A, finishing ahead of Ivory Coast and securing seven points. Subsequently, they secured victories over Cameroon and Angola in the knockout stages, with Ademola Lookman being the standout scorer with three goals across these matches.

Their semi-final clash against South Africa proved challenging, with the match extending into extra time after Teboho Mokoena's late penalty canceled out William Troost-Ekong's earlier spot-kick. Nigeria eventually clinched victory in the penalty shootout.

This final appearance marks Nigeria's return to the grand stage since their triumph over Burkina Faso in 2013 and only their second this century, having previously lost to Cameroon in 2000. A win would bring them level with Ghana in terms of AFCON titles, trailing only Cameroon and Egypt.

Ivory Coast, on the other hand, aims to secure their fourth continental title, aiming to equal Nigeria's record. Additionally, if successful, they would become the first host nation to win the Africa Cup of Nations since Egypt in 2006.

Below are our Opta team statistics, offering insights into the strengths and styles of play of both finalists. Notably, Ivory Coast has been prolific in shot attempts following turnovers, while Nigeria has excelled in open-play passing sequences of 10+ passes.

Nigeria and Ivory Coast are set to clash for the eighth time in the Africa Cup of Nations, with Nigeria holding three victories, Ivory Coast two, and two matches ending in draws. Notably, they have met in all three AFCON editions where Nigeria emerged as champions, including a group stage draw in 1980, a semi-final win for Nigeria in 1994 after a 2-2 draw followed by a penalty shootout, and a quarter-final victory for Nigeria in 2013 with a score of 2-1.

Their recent encounter in this tournament saw Nigeria securing a narrow 1-0 victory over Ivory Coast on Matchday 2 of Group A, courtesy of a Troost-Ekong penalty. Despite registering only one shot on target, Nigeria managed to clinch the win in what was a tightly contested match, though some argue they were slightly superior.

Looking ahead to their upcoming match, the Opta supercomputer predicts the 2023 AFCON final to be Nigeria's to lose. According to the analysis, José Peseiro's team emerges as the favorite in 44.2% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations, indicating a significant margin of superiority. However, Ivory Coast shouldn't be discounted entirely, as the prediction model gives them a 30.2% chance of defeating their opponents within regular time.

In a quarter of the simulations, the match required an additional 30 minutes, highlighting the possibility of a closely contested encounter. Nigeria's chances of success increase further when factoring in the potential for extra time and penalties. Despite Nigeria's strong position, Ivory Coast holds the advantage of playing on home turf, adding another layer of intrigue to the anticipated showdown.