New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins

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This season, the Miami Dolphins (7-3, 6-4 ATS) have developed a trend of dominating weaker teams, and the New York Jets (4-6, 4-5-1 ATS) undoubtedly fit that category. The Jets' recent track record reflects three consecutive straight-up losses, alongside a 0-3-1 record against the spread in their last four games, positioning them as substantial underdogs in the upcoming Dolphins vs. Jets game on Black Friday.

Conversely, the Dolphins boast a flawless 7-0 straight-up record and an impressive 6-1 against-the-spread performance when facing teams at or below the .500 mark this season. The odds for the Dolphins vs. Jets matchup favor Miami by 9.5 points as road favorites, with Miami exhibiting a 4-1 against-the-spread record in their last five road games against the Jets.

In terms of odds, the Dolphins hold a commanding -500 moneyline position, signaling an 83.33% implied probability of securing the win. The game's total is set at 40.5 points, with historical trends indicating that five of the last six Dolphins vs. Jets matchups held in New York resulted in an under outcome.

Regarding public betting, the Dolphins are currently favored, gathering 78% of the spread handle and 86% of the moneyline handle. Miami maintains a strong track record, covering the spread in nine of their last 13 games and winning five out of the last six matchups against the Jets in straight-up victories.

On the flip side, New York has struggled, registering a 4-12 straight-up record in their last 16 games. However, the Jets have displayed some resilience, covering the spread in three out of five instances this season as home underdogs but hold a 1-2 against-the-spread record in divisional games.

Recent trends highlight that each of the Jets' last five games has resulted in an under outcome, while Miami has seen the total go under in four out of their last six games. Additionally, in head-to-head encounters, five of the last seven Dolphins vs. Jets matchups also ended with an under result.

The NFL has had a longstanding association with Thanksgiving for nearly 90 years. However, this season marked a notable addition: the introduction of the first-ever Black Friday game in 2023. Following three divisional matchups during the holiday weekend, the Dolphins and Jets will face off in an unprecedented AFC East clash.

This game holds significant importance for both teams. Miami, leading the division at 7-3, is coming off a narrow victory against the Raiders. Despite their standing, the Dolphins are closely trailed by the Bills in the East. The team's potent offense under Mike McDaniel has faced challenges against top NFL defenses, a strength of the New York team they're up against. On the other side, the Jets are making a change at quarterback, benching Zach Wilson in a bid to stay competitive while anticipating a potential return by Aaron Rodgers from injury.

After nearly 10 games with Wilson leading the offense, the Jets are turning to another quarterback, Boyle, to steer the ship until a possible return by Rodgers. However, Boyle's track record as a starter, going 0-3 in his five-year career, and his struggles to maintain a high completion rate after replacing Wilson in Week 11 raise questions about his capability. There's speculation that Boyle might be more inclined to throw deeper passes, potentially benefiting their top receiver, Garrett Wilson.

New York's cornerback pairing of Gardner and D.J. Reed has allowed only two touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season, while Miami's standout receiver Hill leads the league in receiving yards with 1,222. To have a chance in the game, the Jets will need to contain Hill, although previous matchups against teams like the Chiefs and Eagles have shown that containing him is possible but challenging.

Miami boasts the NFL's second-ranked rushing offense. However, injuries pose a significant challenge as electric rookie De'Von Achane is unlikely to play due to a lingering knee issue, starter Raheem Mostert has been limited in practice due to ankle and knee problems, and reserve Salvon Ahmed has landed on the injured list. With limited options available, Jeff Wilson, who has only seven carries this season, is expected to support Mostert in the game.