Lions vs Packers

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A lot of people were looking forward to the Green Bay Packers' Thanksgiving matchup against Detroit since it was a potentially important match for the NFC North after the team started the season 2-1. Unfortunately, the Packers are currently 4-6, and the 8-2 Lions are in command of the division. Some people believe that the Lions' humiliation on Thursday night in Green Bay on September 28 served as the turning point for both teams.

Now, over two months later, the Lions want to bury the opponent that has long had this division in its palm, while the Packers want to get retribution on the road while hanging onto their last vestige of playoff aspirations. The NFL tripleheader on Thanksgiving is unmatched, and it begins with the Packers and Lions playing at 12:30 PM ET.

Even though the Packers should be fired up and ready for retribution going into this game, we haven't seen this squad play with passion for four quarters of the season yet. To be honest, the Chargers outplayed the Packers because of a turnover within the Green Bay five-yard line and several critical drops from the wide receiving corps.

But even though they were behind the Chicago Bears at home by 12 with three minutes remaining in the game, the Lions prevailed in their second straight nail-biter. With the Packers versus. Lions spread set at 7.5, the Packers may be able to give the Lions three straight close margins, but don't worry—we think the Lions will emerge from the game victorious.

The Packers already suffer from a weak ground game while the Lions own one of the best run defenses in the league. Factor in Aaron Jones is unlikely to play on short rest after being carted off on Sunday, and the Packers are left with A.J. Dillon to face this elite unit.

In round one against the Lions, the Packers’ leading rusher earned 18 yards. Love was forced to throw the ball 36 times in the loss. With the running game missing virtually all year, the Packers have asked a lot of Love through the air. In the past two games, Love has thrown it 40 times. Four times this year already, Love has thrown it 40+ times.

Jahmyr Gibbs has not been the same player since recovering from his injury against the Packers. On October 22, after his return, the Lions crushed the Ravens. Gibbs' explosive performance, which included nine catches for 58 yards and a touchdown in addition to 11 carries for 68 yards, was the bright spot, though.

Moreover, Gibbs has a touchdown in each of the last three games. Neither is he a vulture. Since Gibbs and David Montgomery joined the team, the two have been able to play well together. Gibbs is worth -125 to score a touchdown today, but his receiving yard total of 27.5 is more important to us. It's odd that Gibbs' total is so low here as he has cleared 35 receiving yards in each of the four games since returning from injury.

Gibbs has been targeted at least five times in each of these games, which further strengthens our confidence. We think Gibbs's over 27.5 receiving yards is a value, given his potential and effectiveness following the grab in space.