Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers

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Four years ago, the San Francisco 49ers faced a defeat in the Super Bowl against the Kansas City Chiefs, losing 31-20. This Sunday in Las Vegas, they're aiming to clinch the Lombardi Trophy for the first time since 1994, but they'll have to contend with the Chiefs once again. Securing their spot in the NFC with victories over the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions, the 49ers are making their eighth appearance in the Super Bowl.

San Francisco boasts an exceptional defense, highlighted by their league-leading 22 interceptions and a turnover rate of 15.5%. Throughout the regular season, they managed 28 takeaways in 17 games, while also ranking among the top eight in various defensive categories including total yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, yards allowed per pass attempt, and sacks.

Their offense emphasizes balance, achieving a rare feat in the NFL with a 4,000-yard passer and four players with over 1,000 yards from scrimmage—the first time since 2004. Leading the league in yards per play, yards per drive, red zone efficiency, and points per drive this season, the 49ers displayed their offensive prowess. In the NFC Championship Game against Detroit, they scored 34 points and amassed 413 total yards. Additionally, they had a low turnover rate with only 18 giveaways in 17 regular season games. Their offensive performance also included top rankings in passing yards, rushing yards, and the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL.

The Chiefs possess a formidable pass defense that presents a favorable matchup against key players like Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and the potent passing game of San Francisco. During the regular season, Kansas City stood out in the NFL by ranking among the top five teams in various defensive categories: passing yards allowed (averaging 176.5 per game), yards allowed per attempt (at 6.0), and passing touchdowns allowed (totaling 19). Their dominance extended into the 2024 NFL playoffs, where they limited opponents to just 5.7 yards per pass attempt and a completion rate of 57.4%.

In the playoffs alone, the Chiefs managed to secure six sacks across three games, building upon their impressive regular season performance where they ranked second overall with 57 sacks over 17 games. Notably, Kansas City boasts the highest sack rate in the league (8.6%), including postseason play, and benefits from the consistent disruptive presence of five-time All-Pro Chris Jones, particularly in the defensive tackle position. Despite missing a game, Jones excelled in the 2023 season, ranking second among defensive tackles in sacks (10.5), quarterback hits (33), and quarterback pressures (75). Over the past three seasons, Jones has led all defensive tackles in critical defensive metrics such as tackles for loss (38), sacks (35), and quarterback pressures (217).

The Chiefs had a somewhat disappointing regular season, finishing with an 11-6 record. Despite this, they managed to clinch the AFC West Division title and hosted the Miami Dolphins in the Wild Card weekend. However, they had to hit the road for subsequent games. Nonetheless, they triumphed over the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round and the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game.

Remarkably, the Chiefs not only won all three playoff games but also covered the spread each time. They are currently on their longest streak of covering the spread this season, going 5-0 in their last five games. Additionally, the majority of recent games have seen the total score fall below the set line, with the Under hitting in two out of three postseason games and in five of the last six games dating back to Week 16.

On the other hand, the 49ers experienced a rollercoaster season, initially appearing as one of the top teams in the NFL before enduring a three-game losing streak from Week 6 to Week 8. However, they bounced back strongly, ultimately clinching the No. 1 seed in the NFC and earning a first-round bye.

The bye proved crucial as it allowed the 49ers to play at home throughout the NFC playoffs. Despite narrow victories over the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions in the Divisional Round and the NFC Championship Game, respectively, they failed to cover the spread in either game. Notably, they staged an impressive comeback against the Lions after trailing 24-7 at halftime.

In the playoffs, the 49ers have displayed strong second-half performances, outscoring their opponents significantly. They have split the Over/Under in their two postseason games, with the Over hitting in six out of their last nine games overall.

These two teams met previously in Super Bowl LIV, with the Chiefs emerging victorious with a 31-20 win. Kansas City is aiming to secure their third Super Bowl title, having defeated the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35 last season, and potentially become the first team to achieve back-to-back wins since the New England Patriots in 2004-2005.