On Saturday afternoon, the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs square battle in a possible NFL playoff preview.
On the injury report this week, the Chiefs came very close to hitting DEFCON 1. In Kansas City's Week 15 matchup with the Cleveland Browns, Patrick Mahomes sustained an ankle sprain that at the time appeared to be more serious. Nevertheless, Mahomes participated fully in practice in the days that followed, putting aside any expectations that supporters may see Carson Wentz in the starting lineup on Saturday afternoon.
The Texans are not an easy opponent for Mahomes and company. The defense presents a special challenge for Mahomes and the Chiefs, even though C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense have not yet reached the peak of the 2023 campaign.
Houston is rated ninth in the NFL in terms of points allowed and fourth in terms of yards allowed going into Week 16. Even if the Chiefs offensive hasn't exactly resembled teams led by Andy Reid in the past, a shootout is always possible because they still have Patrick Mahomes on the roster.
The Chiefs are still two games clear of the second-place Bills for the AFC's top seed, but they will have to win a full game more to get the coveted first-round bye.
After star quarterback Patrick Mahomes hobbled off the field late in a 21-7 victory over the Browns last Saturday, their road appeared considerably more difficult. If Carson Wentz were starting quarterback, Kansas City would probably be the underdog in each of the Chiefs' remaining three games against teams that are 9-5 or better.
Nevertheless, Mahomes has actively participated in every practice this week, even though it was first thought to be "week-to-week" The Texans were favored by 2.5 early in the week, but that led the line to bounce back to Chiefs -3.5.
According to beat reporters, Kansas City had relatively light workouts this week, which is to be expected for a short week this late in the season. Being a "full participant" does not imply that Mahomes is playing at his best.
Houston's defense is no joke—they’re currently ranked No. 1 in the league by DVOA and boast the second-best pass rush based on adjusted sack rate. On the flip side, the Chiefs' offensive line owes its respectable 18th-place rank in the same metric largely to Patrick Mahomes' mobility. While he’s not a traditional rushing quarterback, his ability to navigate the pocket and avoid pressure is a major asset.
But here’s the catch: if Mahomes is working with just one healthy ankle, those Houdini-like escapes and signature off-platform throws could be seriously compromised. And without a reliable passing game, Kansas City’s offense might find itself in deep trouble.
Adding to the mix, the Chiefs have also been riding their luck this season, according to the Luck Rankings. Even with a healthy Mahomes, only one of their last five wins was by more than three points—and that was against the struggling Browns. This game could be a wake-up call if things don’t go their way.
