Detroit Pistons vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Two key factors contribute to this bet, despite skepticism from some, as Cade Cunningham remains sidelined for a third consecutive game due to a calf contusion.

Cunningham’s absence is undoubtedly a setback for the Detroit Pistons’ offense. Over the course of the season, their offensive rating has been 2.7 points higher when he’s on the floor compared to when he’s not. However, there may be an overreaction to him being out.

So far this week, Detroit’s games without Cunningham have split 1-1 on hitting the Over. In the first game without him, the total dropped by 5.5 points before the matchup easily surpassed the line by more than 40. Conversely, Tuesday’s game against San Antonio stayed well under the total, largely due to the Pistons’ defensive dominance against the struggling Spurs.

That same defensive effort likely won’t be enough to slow down the Cleveland Cavaliers.

While it’s logical for the total to decrease in Cunningham’s absence—tonight’s line is 6.5 points lower than the last meeting between these teams on February 5—it still appears to be an overcorrection.

With Cunningham out, Malik Beasley is expected to take more shots, and Dennis Schroder will likely push the pace. These are still professional players, among the best in the world at scoring, and Cunningham’s absence doesn’t mean Detroit’s offense will completely stall. While fewer free throws might be attempted, the Pistons will continue to generate scoring opportunities.

Additionally, Cleveland tends to struggle defensively when fatigued, which is not surprising given the backcourt duo of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. In 14 back-to-back situations this season, the Cavaliers have hit the Over on the second night in 10 of them.

Given this trend, backing the Over remains a sensible play, even with Cunningham out, especially since the total has already dropped by three points since Thursday.