Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz 05

Borussia Dortmund’s chances of securing European football next season hang by a thread as they prepare to host Mainz 05 at Signal Iduna Park on Sunday. Mainz, currently sitting in third, are firmly in the race for a Champions League spot, while Dortmund’s recent struggles have left them lagging far behind.

Dortmund’s 2-0 defeat to RB Leipzig on March 15 left them with just 35 points—10 fewer than Mainz, who drew 2-2 with Freiburg the same day. Despite creating six big chances and generating over three expected goals (xG) against Leipzig, BVB failed to score, while Leipzig capitalized on their opportunities with two goals from fewer chances.

Since Niko Kovac took charge, Dortmund’s form has been inconsistent, with four losses in his six Bundesliga matches. Their attack has been particularly blunt, managing only three goals in their last four games and failing to score in their past two league matches.

With just eight matchdays remaining, Dortmund sit seven points behind Freiburg and Leipzig, who occupy the Europa League and Conference League qualification spots. Given their poor form—just one win in their last four league games and seven defeats in their last 11—overtaking their rivals seems unlikely.

Their home record offers little comfort, with only two wins in their last 11 matches at Signal Iduna Park and four losses in that span.

Meanwhile, Mainz deserve credit for their resilience in securing a draw against Freiburg despite playing with 10 men for most of the match after a first-half red card. Their strong position in the top four makes them formidable opponents for an out-of-sorts Dortmund side.

This clash could further dent Dortmund’s fading European hopes while boosting Mainz’s Champions League ambitions.

Karnevalsverein has scored at least two goals in five straight games, and with 28 goals surrendered in the Bundesliga, they are the second-best defensive team in the top tier.

Head coach Bo Henriksen led a 3-1 victory over Dortmund on November 9, boosted by BVB player Emre Can being sent off in the 27th minute.

Mainz's run in recent weeks has been fantastic, as they have gone unbeaten in six games, winning four and maintaining three clean sheets.

The visitors have also won three straight away games, although they had lost their previous three on the road.